Plasma XPL
XPL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List held mixed
63.2% below its 365-day high of $0.2139 (2026-01-06), +30.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 3r 1r 2Dg 2Ug 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.0720 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 4)
- Current low
- $0.0728 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1035
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 3
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0766 · 2026-09-13
- Position
- 6 of median 4 (max 7)
- Current low
- $0.0728 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0893
- Cycle-low confidence
- 84% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0799 · 2026-10-08 (daily)
- Position
- 13 of median 4.5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.0728 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0796
- Cycle-low confidence
- 63%
- Confirmed lows
- 57
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.072 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Current low 0.07282 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1035.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.07665 (Sep 2026), week 6 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.07282 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.08934. Cycle-low confidence 84%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.07986 (2026-10-08), day 13 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Current low 0.07282 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.07962. Cycle-low confidence 63%.
- Red List: 63% below the 2026-01-06 high; +31% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.86 (cheap); -62% from the all-time high.
Has Plasma bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the XPL snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0720 from 2026-08-31. A newer candidate at $0.0728 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1035, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0766 from 2026-09-13. A newer candidate at $0.0728 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0893, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0799 from 2026-10-08. A newer candidate at $0.0728 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0796, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Plasma below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 63.2% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2139 from 2026-01-06. Separately, CoinGecko reports -95.3% relative to its all-time high of $1.68 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch → Red List
- First observed: Watch
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 9.39 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 2.21 x | 6.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 124 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 2171.8 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 0.76 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 19.1 % | 6.9 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 0.9 yrs | 1.1 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $432.1M
- Fully diluted
- $953.1M
- 24h volume
- $40.6M
- Circulating
- 4,533,333,333
- All-time high
- $1.68 · 2025-09-27 (-95.3%)
- TVL
- $570.7M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $16.3K
- Revenue 30d
- $16.3K
- Fees 1y
- $154.0K
- Mayer multiple
- 0.858 · cheap
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-12-02 (324 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- plasma
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources