Tezos XTZ
XTZ cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 77.5 mixed
57.8% below its 365-day high of $0.7470 (2025-11-08), +64.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
58% below its rolling 365-day high, 347 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +64.7% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.1912 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 6.5 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.1912 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 36% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Weekly
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dg 3r 2Ur 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.2800 · 2026-10-11
- Position
- 2 of median 4 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.1912 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 56% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 58
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.2846 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.2846 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25%
- Confirmed lows
- 407
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1912 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 6.5. Cycle-low confidence 36%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.28 (Oct 2026), week 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 56%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.2846 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Watch: 58% below the 2025-11-08 high; +65% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 90% decline over 20 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +65% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-10-18 (trigger 0.3456).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.12 (neutral); -58% vs the 200-week average; -96% from the all-time high.
Has Tezos bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the XTZ snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1912 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2800 from 2026-10-11. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2846 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Tezos below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 57.8% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.7470 from 2025-11-08. Separately, CoinGecko reports -96.5% relative to its all-time high of $9.12 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.91 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $0.1912 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -90.0% over 20 months
- Above trough
- +64.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.2537
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.2800 confirmed 2026-10-18 · trigger $0.3456
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 22.5 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.15 % | 2.2 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.02 x | 14.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 137 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 7738.2 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 17.46 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 1.9 % | 5.2 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $351.3M
- Fully diluted
- $357.7M
- 24h volume
- $4.0M
- Circulating
- 1,097,851,333
- All-time high
- $9.12 · 2021-10-03 (-96.5%)
- TVL
- $20.1M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $3.7K
- Revenue 30d
- $2.4K
- Fees 1y
- $255.8K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.121 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -57.7%
- Pi cycle
- 0.351
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2243 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- tezos
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources