Aerodrome Finance AERO
AERO cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Phoenix · monthly · score 61.8 mixed
34.0% below its 365-day high of $1.30 (2025-11-11), +215.0% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
Not on the Broken Coins list.
Not on the Broken Coins list: 34% below its rolling 365-day high, under the 50% Watch line, and no crash trigger.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +120.6% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ur 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.3888 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4 (max 9)
- Current low
- $0.3888 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 4%
- Confirmed lows
- 6
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 2Ug 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.5165 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4.0 (max 22)
- Current low
- $0.7640 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.9786
- Cycle-low confidence
- 33% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 23
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.7640 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 19)
- Current low
- $0.7640 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 40% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 162
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.3888 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 4%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.5165 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.764 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.9786. Cycle-low confidence 33%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.764 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 40%.
- Phoenix: 84% decline over 28 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +121% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.67 (neutral); -61% from the all-time high.
Has Aerodrome Finance bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the AERO snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3888 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.5165 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.7640 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.9786, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.7640 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Aerodrome Finance below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 34.0% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.30 from 2025-11-11. Separately, CoinGecko reports -63.0% relative to its all-time high of $2.32 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $2.38 · Apr 2024
- Trough
- $0.3888 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -83.6% over 28 months
- Above trough
- +120.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.5717
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.4744 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.5165 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.6925
| decline | 26.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.44 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.99 x | 7.6 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 86 # | 6 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.7 yrs | 6.3 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $839.1M
- Fully diluted
- $1.67B
- 24h volume
- $54.0M
- Circulating
- 999,982,899
- All-time high
- $2.32 · 2024-12-07 (-63.0%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.674 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.576
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-02-06 (989 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- aerodrome-finance
Continue your cycle research
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