Aster ASTER
ASTER cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 30.0 mixed
46.7% below its 365-day high of $1.35 (2025-11-20), +78.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-18. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +78.1% above the Feb 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 3r 1r 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.5850 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4 (max 4)
- Current low
- $0.4040 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ur 2Dg 1r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.6583 · 2026-09-27
- Position
- 4 of median 4 (max 8)
- Current low
- $0.6660 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.7559
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25%
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 3r 1g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.6784 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4.0 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.6784 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 18%
- Confirmed lows
- 67
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.585 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.6583 (Sep 2026), week 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.666 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.7559. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.6784 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 18%.
- Watch: 47% below the 2025-11-20 high; +78% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 70% decline over 3 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +78% above the trough; pullback #8 confirmed 2026-10-04.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.08 (neutral); -41% from the all-time high.
Has Aster bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ASTER snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.5850 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.6583 from 2026-09-27. A newer candidate at $0.6660 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.7559, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.6784 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Aster below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 46.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.35 from 2025-11-20. Separately, CoinGecko reports -70.1% relative to its all-time high of $2.41 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-22. 30 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List → Watch
- Watch → Amber List
- First observed: Watch
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.35 · Nov 2025
- Trough
- $0.4040 · Feb 2026
- Decline
- -70.1% over 3 months
- Above trough
- +78.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.7750
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #8 low $0.6583 confirmed 2026-10-04 · trigger $0.7669
| decline | 20.0 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.36 % | 12.9 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 2.88 x | 0.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 56 # | 9 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 0.9 yrs | 1.2 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.94B
- Fully diluted
- $5.57B
- 24h volume
- $84.4M
- Circulating
- 2,710,487,456 of 8,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $2.41 · 2025-09-24 (-70.1%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.078 · neutral
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-11-20 (336 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- aster-2
Continue your cycle research
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