Bounce AUCTION
AUCTION cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List held Phoenix · weekly · score 40 mixed
61.6% below its 365-day high of $9.04 (2026-01-25), +27.9% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-19. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Phoenix weekly: stopped falling by the rules, +27.9% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 1g 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $4.52 · 2025-12-31
- Position
- 10 of median 3.5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $2.71 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $4.39
- Cycle-low confidence
- 56% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 3g 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $3.11 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.5 (max 21)
- Current low
- $3.12 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $3.82
- Cycle-low confidence
- 40% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 37
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $3.12 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4 (max 17)
- Current low
- $3.12 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25%
- Confirmed lows
- 344
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 4.52 (Dec 2025), month 10 of a cycle that has typically run 3.5. Current low 2.71 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 4.39. Cycle-low confidence 56%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 3.11 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Current low 3.12 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 3.82. Cycle-low confidence 40%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 3.12 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Amber List: 62% below the 2026-01-25 high; +28% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 17 months, weekly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +28% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 3.63).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.91 (cheap); -67% vs the 200-week average; -94% from the all-time high.
Has Bounce bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the AUCTION snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $4.52 from 2025-12-31. A newer candidate at $2.71 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $4.39, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $3.11 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $3.12 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $3.82, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $3.12 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Bounce below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 61.6% below its rolling 365-day high of $9.04 from 2026-01-25. Separately, CoinGecko reports -95.1% relative to its all-time high of $70.44 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch · Phoenix weekly → Amber List · Phoenix weekly
- First observed: Watch · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $67.60 · Mar 2025
- Trough
- $2.71 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -96.0% over 17 months
- Above trough
- +27.9%
- Monthly
- not yet · trigger $4.39
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $3.11 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $3.63
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 10 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 15.07 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.03 x | 14.8 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 745 # | 0 / 15 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 4543.08 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.0 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
5 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $27.6M
- Fully diluted
- $28.3M
- 24h volume
- $4.2M
- Circulating
- 7,440,409 of 10,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $70.44 · 2021-04-11 (-95.1%)
- TVL
- $6.1K (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 0.913 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -67.1%
- Pi cycle
- 0.377
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-10-19 (1829 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- auction
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources