PancakeSwap CAKE
CAKE cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Falling Phoenix · monthly · score 32.8 mixed
25.2% below its 365-day high of $2.99 (2026-09-27), +98.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-19. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +98.1% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $1.13 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4 (max 4)
- Current low
- $1.13 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.35 · 2026-08-02
- Position
- 12 of median 4.5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $2.08 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2.55
- Cycle-low confidence
- 67% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 2Ug 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $2.11 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4 (max 13)
- Current low
- $2.11 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 21%
- Confirmed lows
- 96
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.13 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.35 (Aug 2026), week 12 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Current low 2.08 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2.55. Cycle-low confidence 67%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 2.11 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
- Amber List: 25% below the 2026-09-27 high; +98% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 76% decline over 8 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +98% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-08-23.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.33 (neutral); -49% from the all-time high.
Has PancakeSwap bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the CAKE snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.13 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.35 from 2026-08-02. A newer candidate at $2.08 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2.55, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $2.11 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is PancakeSwap below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 25.2% below its rolling 365-day high of $2.99 from 2026-09-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -94.9% relative to its all-time high of $43.96 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $4.61 · Oct 2025
- Trough
- $1.13 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -75.5% over 8 months
- Above trough
- +98.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $1.49
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (4 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $1.35 confirmed 2026-08-23 · trigger $1.48
| decline | 22.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.23 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.04 x | 14.7 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 87 # | 6 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.4 yrs | 2.5 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $829.7M
- Fully diluted
- $858.9M
- 24h volume
- $51.7M
- Circulating
- 330,681,838 of 400,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $43.96 · 2021-04-30 (-94.9%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.332 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.542
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-06-12 (497 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- pancakeswap-token
Continue your cycle research
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