Compound COMP
COMP cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 60.8 bullish lean
33.9% below its 365-day high of $39.12 (2025-10-27), +76.0% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-19. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +75.8% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $14.70 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 6 (max 15)
- Current low
- $14.70 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 37% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 12
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $20.60 · 2026-10-18
- Position
- 1 of median 4 (max 14)
- Current low
- $20.60 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 38% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 60
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $20.60 · 2026-10-18 (weekly)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 21)
- Current low
- $20.60 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 21%
- Confirmed lows
- 401
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 14.70 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 6. Cycle-low confidence 37%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 20.60 (Oct 2026), week 1 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 38%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 20.60 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
- Amber List: 34% below the 2025-10-27 high; +76% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 90% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +76% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-10-21.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.30 (neutral); -41% vs the 200-week average; -97% from the all-time high.
Has Compound bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the COMP snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $14.70 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $20.60 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $20.60 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Compound below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 33.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $39.12 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -97.0% relative to its all-time high of $854.45 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $141.00 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $14.70 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -89.6% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +75.8%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $19.08
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (8 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $20.60 confirmed 2026-10-21 · trigger $25.30
| decline | 29.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 6.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.08 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 167 # | 3 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $252.2M
- Fully diluted
- $252.2M
- 24h volume
- $15.3M
- Circulating
- 10,000,000 of 10,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $854.45 · 2021-05-11 (-97.0%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.304 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -41.0%
- Pi cycle
- 0.453
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2243 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- compound-governance-token
Continue your cycle research
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