CoW Protocol COW
COW cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List held mixed
52.9% below its 365-day high of $0.2899 (2026-02-14), +37.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-20. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 1g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.2397 · 2025-06-30
- Position
- 16 of median 4.0 (max 6)
- Current low
- $0.0992 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1939
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 3
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1262 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.1230 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1530
- Cycle-low confidence
- 80% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 17
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.1230 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 22)
- Current low
- $0.1230 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 53%
- Confirmed lows
- 127
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.2397 (Jun 2025), month 16 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.0992 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1939.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1262 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Current low 0.123 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.153. Cycle-low confidence 80%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.123 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 53%.
- Amber List: 53% below the 2026-02-14 high; +38% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.91 (cheap); -88% from the all-time high.
Has CoW Protocol bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the COW snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2397 from 2025-06-30. A newer candidate at $0.0992 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1939, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1262 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.1230 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1530, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1230 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is CoW Protocol below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 52.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2899 from 2026-02-14. Separately, CoinGecko reports -93.9% relative to its all-time high of $2.22 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch → Amber List
- First observed: Watch
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.59 % | 3.6 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.74 x | 9.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 312 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 4.0 x | 20.0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 12.6 % | 6.3 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.1 yrs | 4.5 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $92.0M
- Fully diluted
- $160.1M
- 24h volume
- $1.5M
- Circulating
- 574,488,169 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $2.22 · 2022-03-28 (-93.9%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $1.9M
- Revenue 30d
- $1.1M
- Fees 1y
- $37.5M
- Mayer multiple
- 0.907 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.38
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-09-24 (758 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- cow-protocol
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources