Convex Finance CVX
CVX cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 59.8 full bullish continuity
3.5% below its 365-day high of $2.68 (2026-01-03), +148.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-18. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +148.6% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Watch · Phoenix weekly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ur 3g
- Confirmed low
- $1.04 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $1.04 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 36% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 8
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $1.76 · 2026-10-18
- Position
- 1 of median 4 (max 14)
- Current low
- $1.76 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 52% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 38
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $1.87 · 2026-10-17 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5 (max 20)
- Current low
- $1.76 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 72% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 268
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green outside bar (3). Last confirmed swing low 1.04 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 36%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.76 (Oct 2026), week 1 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 52%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.87 (2026-10-17), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 72%.
- Watch: 4% below the 2026-01-03 high; +149% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 88% decline over 19 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +149% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-10-21.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.52 (neutral); -14% vs the 200-week average; -66% from the all-time high.
Has Convex Finance bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the CVX snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.04 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.76 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.87 from 2026-10-17. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Convex Finance below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 3.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $2.68 from 2026-01-03. Separately, CoinGecko reports -95.7% relative to its all-time high of $60.09 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch · Phoenix weekly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch → Watch · Phoenix weekly
- Watch; recovering → Watch
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Phoenix monthly
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $8.30 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $1.04 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -87.5% over 19 months
- Above trough
- +148.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $1.42
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $1.76 confirmed 2026-10-21 · trigger $2.15
| decline | 28.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 6.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.45 % | 6.5 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.07 x | 14.5 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 187 # | 3 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 6.9 x | 20.0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 0.36 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 8.4 % | 5.8 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $213.2M
- Fully diluted
- $228.7M
- 24h volume
- $5.2M
- Circulating
- 93,194,518 of 100,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $60.09 · 2022-01-01 (-95.7%)
- TVL
- $596.6M (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $2.5M
- Revenue 30d
- $951.7K
- Fees 1y
- $31.0M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.522 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -14.4%
- Pi cycle
- 0.505
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-09-08 (1505 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- convex-finance
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources