Definitive EDGE
EDGE cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 40 mixed
77.4% below its 365-day high of $0.4251 (2025-10-26), +68.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
77% below its rolling 365-day high, 360 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +68.4% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 1g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0570 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4 (max 4)
- Current low
- $0.0570 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 1r 2Dr 2Dg
- Confirmed low
- $0.0641 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4.5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.0570 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 81% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 15
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0917 · 2026-10-19 (daily)
- Position
- 2 of median 5.0 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.0917 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 19%
- Confirmed lows
- 89
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.05704 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.06414 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 81%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.09169 (2026-10-19), day 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 19%.
- Amber List: 77% below the 2025-10-26 high; +68% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 94% decline over 10 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +68% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.13 (neutral); -87% from the all-time high.
Has Definitive bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the EDGE snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0570 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0641 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0917 from 2026-10-19. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Definitive below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 77.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.4251 from 2025-10-26. Separately, CoinGecko reports -88.9% relative to its all-time high of $0.8638 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.9179 · Aug 2025
- Trough
- $0.0570 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -93.8% over 10 months
- Above trough
- +68.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $0.1250
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (13 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $0.0641 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.1218
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.8 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 3.7 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 722 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 5.7 x | 20.0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | -42.7 % | 0.7 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.6 yrs | 3.0 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $29.6M
- Fully diluted
- $109.5M
- 24h volume
- $2.0M
- Circulating
- 270,520,746 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $0.8638 · 2025-08-17 (-88.9%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $424.6K
- Revenue 30d
- $424.6K
- Fees 1y
- $3.1M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.132 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.366
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-04-02 (568 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- definitive
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources