KernelDAO KERNEL
KERNEL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
82.0% below its 365-day high of $0.2535 (2025-10-28), +49.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-19. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +49.6% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0305 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 7.0 (max 8)
- Current low
- $0.0305 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 3
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0372 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 7 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.0387 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0504
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0387 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.0387 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85%
- Confirmed lows
- 97
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0305 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 7.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.03723 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 7. Current low 0.03867 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.05044. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.03867 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Red List: 82% below the 2025-10-28 high; +50% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 92% decline over 16 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +50% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.91 (cheap); -87% from the all-time high.
Has KernelDAO bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the KERNEL snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0305 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0372 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.0387 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0504, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0387 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is KernelDAO below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 82.0% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2535 from 2025-10-28. Separately, CoinGecko reports -90.4% relative to its all-time high of $0.4732 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.3900 · Apr 2025
- Trough
- $0.0305 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -92.2% over 16 months
- Above trough
- +49.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0494
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.0451 · Feb 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.0372 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.0438
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 20.62 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 3.47 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1014 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.5 yrs | 2.9 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $15.6M
- Fully diluted
- $54.3M
- 24h volume
- $3.2M
- Circulating
- 287,808,020 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $0.4732 · 2025-04-14 (-90.4%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.911 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.324
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-04-14 (556 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- kernel-2 check
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources