Numeraire NMR
NMR cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Phoenix · monthly · score 52.8 mixed
39.4% below its 365-day high of $18.61 (2026-10-06), +80.8% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
Not on the Broken Coins list.
Not on the Broken Coins list: 39% below its rolling 365-day high, under the 50% Watch line, and no crash trigger.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +44.4% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dg 2Ur 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $7.81 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $7.81 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 32% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 14
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $8.53 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $10.86 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $14.07
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 53
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Dr 1r 2Dg 1r
- Confirmed low
- $11.45 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 16)
- Current low
- $10.86 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $12.21
- Cycle-low confidence
- 50%
- Confirmed lows
- 434
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 7.81 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 32%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 8.53 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 10.86 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 14.07. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 11.45 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 10.86 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 12.21. Cycle-low confidence 50%.
- Phoenix: 86% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +44% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 9.36).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.21 (neutral); -22% vs the 200-week average; -87% from the all-time high.
Has Numeraire bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the NMR snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $7.81 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $8.53 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $10.86 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $14.07, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $11.45 from 2026-10-15. A newer candidate at $10.86 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $12.21, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Numeraire below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 39.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $18.61 from 2026-10-06. Separately, CoinGecko reports -87.9% relative to its all-time high of $93.15 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Phoenix monthly
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $54.39 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $7.81 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -85.6% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +44.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $9.46
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $8.53 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $9.36
| decline | 27.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 13.32 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.48 x | 11.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 334 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $82.0M
- Fully diluted
- $121.2M
- 24h volume
- $10.9M
- Circulating
- 7,172,768 of 11,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $93.15 · 2021-05-16 (-87.9%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.207 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -21.8%
- Pi cycle
- 0.529
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2243 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- numeraire
Continue your cycle research
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