Orca ORCA
ORCA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Phoenix · monthly · score 39.8 bullish lean
45.7% below its 365-day high of $3.33 (2026-10-07), +177.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
Not on the Broken Coins list.
Not on the Broken Coins list: 46% below its rolling 365-day high, under the 50% Watch line, and no crash trigger.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +90.1% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $1.01 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $0.9511 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 68% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.28 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 19)
- Current low
- $1.71 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2.39
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 41
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ur 2Dg 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $1.72 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 5.0 (max 33)
- Current low
- $1.72 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 13%
- Confirmed lows
- 291
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.01 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3.5. Cycle-low confidence 68%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.28 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 1.71 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2.39. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.72 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 13%.
- Phoenix: 90% decline over 30 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +90% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.34 (neutral); -10% vs the 200-week average; -79% from the all-time high.
Has Orca bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ORCA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.01 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.28 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $1.71 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2.39, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.72 from 2026-10-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Orca below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 45.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $3.33 from 2026-10-07. Separately, CoinGecko reports -91.1% relative to its all-time high of $20.33 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $9.11 · Dec 2023
- Trough
- $0.9511 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -89.6% over 30 months
- Above trough
- +90.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $1.41
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (11 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $1.28 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $1.48
| decline | 29.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 8.64 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.23 x | 13.2 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 275 # | 3 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.7 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $109.4M
- Fully diluted
- $134.9M
- 24h volume
- $9.5M
- Circulating
- 60,798,759 of 100,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $20.33 · 2021-10-02 (-91.1%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.344 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -9.7%
- Pi cycle
- 0.579
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-02-01 (1724 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- orca
Continue your cycle research
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