Osmosis OSMO
OSMO cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 61.0 bullish lean
63.5% below its 365-day high of $0.1367 (2025-10-27), +89.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +89.7% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dr 2Ug 1g 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0263 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 4 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.0263 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 31% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 6
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0325 · 2026-10-11
- Position
- 2 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.0325 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 27
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 1r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0394 · 2026-10-17 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5 (max 21)
- Current low
- $0.0394 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 50%
- Confirmed lows
- 206
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.0263 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 31%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.03246 (Oct 2026), week 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.03935 (2026-10-17), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 50%.
- Amber List: 64% below the 2025-10-27 high; +90% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 99% decline over 31 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +90% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-10-18.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.30 (neutral); -97% from the all-time high.
Has Osmosis bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the OSMO snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0263 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0325 from 2026-10-11. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0394 from 2026-10-17. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Osmosis below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 63.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.1367 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.6% relative to its all-time high of $11.25 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.96 · Dec 2023
- Trough
- $0.0263 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -98.7% over 31 months
- Above trough
- +89.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0393
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $0.0325 confirmed 2026-10-18 · trigger $0.0387
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 6.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.92 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.23 x | 13.3 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 743 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 458.4 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 2.45 x | 12.6 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 84.7 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 3.4 yrs | 8.3 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $27.8M
- Fully diluted
- $34.2M
- 24h volume
- $1.9M
- Circulating
- 790,758,591 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $11.25 · 2022-03-03 (-99.6%)
- TVL
- $11.4M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $5.0K
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $17.4K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.298 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.386
- On Coinbase since
- 2023-05-25 (1246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- osmosis
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources