Spell SPELL
SPELL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
77.5% below its 365-day high of $0.000387 (2025-11-11), +15.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
A crash of 9.1 daily-vol units over 20 days, 78% below its rolling 365-day high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +15.5% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $7.53e-05 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $7.53e-05 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 42% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 3r 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $7.89e-05 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 13)
- Current low
- $8.08e-05 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $9.69e-05
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 42
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Dg 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $8.32e-05 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 5 (max 25)
- Current low
- $8.32e-05 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 14%
- Confirmed lows
- 310
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 7.53e-05 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 42%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 7.89e-05 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 8.08e-05 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 9.69e-05. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 8.32e-05 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 14%.
- Red List: 78% below the 2025-11-11 high; +16% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 19 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +16% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 9.25e-05).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.77 (cheap); -84% vs the 200-week average; -100% from the all-time high.
Has Spell bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the SPELL snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $7.53e-05 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $7.89e-05 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $8.08e-05 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $9.69e-05, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $8.32e-05 from 2026-10-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Spell below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 77.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.000387 from 2025-11-11. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.8% relative to its all-time high of $0.0351 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.00211 · Jan 2025
- Trough
- $7.53e-05 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -96.4% over 19 months
- Above trough
- +15.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $9.62e-05
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.000398 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $7.89e-05 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $9.25e-05
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.39 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.14 x | 13.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 971 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.9 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $16.8M
- Fully diluted
- $19.2M
- 24h volume
- $1.1M
- Circulating
- 171,510,541,047 of 210,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $0.0351 · 2021-11-02 (-99.8%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.765 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -83.7%
- Pi cycle
- 0.265
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-12-07 (1780 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- spell-token
Continue your cycle research
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