SPX6900 SPX
SPX cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List held Phoenix · weekly · score 65.0 mixed
67.9% below its 365-day high of $1.18 (2025-10-27), +70.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-18. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Phoenix weekly: stopped falling by the rules, +13.8% above the Oct 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 3g 1r 3g 2Ur 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.3063 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 4)
- Current low
- $0.3333 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.4621
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 3
Weekly
- Last bars
- 3r 2Dr 3r 2Dr 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.3333 · 2026-10-18
- Position
- 1 of median 5.5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.3333 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 35% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 1r 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.3441 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.3441 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 15%
- Confirmed lows
- 73
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.3063 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Current low 0.3333 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.4621.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.3333 (Oct 2026), week 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Cycle-low confidence 35%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.3441 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 15%.
- Red List: 68% below the 2025-10-27 high; +71% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 80% decline over 12 months, weekly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +14% above the trough; no weekly pullback yet — the entry is the pullback, never the chase.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.98 (cheap); -76% from the all-time high.
Has SPX6900 bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the SPX snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3063 from 2026-08-31. A newer candidate at $0.3333 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.4621, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3333 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3441 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is SPX6900 below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 67.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.18 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -83.3% relative to its all-time high of $2.27 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List → Red List · Phoenix weekly
- Amber List → Red List
- Red List → Amber List
- Red List; recovering → Red List
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.66 · Oct 2025
- Trough
- $0.3333 · Oct 2026
- Decline
- -79.9% over 12 months
- Above trough
- +13.8%
- Monthly
- not yet · trigger $0.4621
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- awaiting the first weekly pullback
| decline | 25.0 |
| confirmation | 10 |
| earliness | 30 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.15 % | 2.2 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 126 # | 6 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.1 yrs | 1.8 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $411.9M
- Fully diluted
- $411.9M
- 24h volume
- $4.7M
- Circulating
- 930,987,187 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $2.27 · 2025-07-28 (-83.3%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.98 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.499
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-09-09 (408 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- spx6900
Continue your cycle research
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