Official Trump TRUMP
TRUMP cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List held Phoenix · weekly · score 40 mixed
81.3% below its 365-day high of $9.56 (2025-11-10), +31.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-19. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Phoenix weekly: stopped falling by the rules, +31.5% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 1r 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $4.57 · 2025-10-31
- Position
- 12 of median ? (max ?)
- Current low
- $1.36 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $3.70
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 1
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.81 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 6.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $1.66 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.96
- Cycle-low confidence
- 48% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $1.67 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 6 (max 26)
- Current low
- $1.66 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 57%
- Confirmed lows
- 98
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 4.57 (Oct 2025). Current low 1.36 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 3.70.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.81 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 6. Current low 1.66 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.96. Cycle-low confidence 48%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.67 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 6. Cycle-low confidence 57%.
- Red List: 81% below the 2025-11-10 high; +32% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 97% decline over 19 months, weekly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +32% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 2.20).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.89 (cheap); -96% from the all-time high.
Has Official Trump bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the TRUMP snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $4.57 from 2025-10-31. A newer candidate at $1.36 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $3.70, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.81 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $1.66 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.96, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.67 from 2026-10-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Official Trump below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 81.3% below its rolling 365-day high of $9.56 from 2025-11-10. Separately, CoinGecko reports -97.6% relative to its all-time high of $73.43 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Red List · Phoenix weekly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $49.26 · Jan 2025
- Trough
- $1.36 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -97.2% over 19 months
- Above trough
- +31.5%
- Monthly
- not yet · trigger $3.70
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $1.81 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $2.20
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 10 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 23.88 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 3.55 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 109 # | 6 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.7 yrs | 3.6 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $573.0M
- Fully diluted
- $2.03B
- 24h volume
- $136.8M
- Circulating
- 281,867,936 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $73.43 · 2025-01-19 (-97.6%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 0.885 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.291
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-01-21 (639 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- official-trump
Continue your cycle research
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