UMA UMA
UMA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 55 bullish lean
69.4% below its 365-day high of $1.27 (2025-11-09), +22.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-20. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +22.6% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.3170 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5.5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $0.3170 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 24%
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 3g 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.3439 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.3594 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.4186
- Cycle-low confidence
- 45% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 54
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.3594 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.3594 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 21%
- Confirmed lows
- 421
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.317 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Cycle-low confidence 24%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.3439 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.3594 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.4186. Cycle-low confidence 45%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.3594 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
- Amber List: 69% below the 2025-11-09 high; +23% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 31 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +23% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 0.3947).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.97 (cheap); -77% vs the 200-week average; -99% from the all-time high.
Has UMA bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the UMA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3170 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3439 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.3594 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.4186, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3594 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is UMA below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 69.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.27 from 2025-11-09. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.1% relative to its all-time high of $41.56 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $7.01 · Jan 2024
- Trough
- $0.3170 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -95.5% over 31 months
- Above trough
- +22.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.4030
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.3439 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.3947
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.49 % | 13.3 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.42 x | 11.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 610 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $37.2M
- Fully diluted
- $52.7M
- 24h volume
- $1.7M
- Circulating
- 92,730,566
- All-time high
- $41.56 · 2021-02-04 (-99.1%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.969 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -77.3%
- Pi cycle
- 0.368
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-09-08 (2235 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- uma
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources